What Impact Could a Trump Presidency Have on the Australian Commercial Property Market?

With Donald Trump likely to feature heavily in the 2025 U.S. presidential election, many investors are considering the ripple effects a second Trump term could have — including across Australia’s commercial property sector. While Australia’s market fundamentals are largely independent, global events like U.S. political shifts can influence currency strength, investment appetite, and commercial trade — all of which can subtly or significantly shape opportunities here. Below, we explore the possible effects for Australia’s commercial property market if Trump returns to the White House.

Possible Flow-On Effects to Watch

Global uncertainty, shifting alliances, and volatile economic policies could all play a role in shaping Australia’s commercial market over the coming years.

Increased Currency Volatility

• A Trump victory could create short-term volatility in the Australian dollar (AUD), influencing overseas investor behaviour.

• A weaker AUD often boosts interest from foreign investors seeking to buy quality commercial assets at relative discounts.

• Currency fluctuations may temporarily make Australian property more attractive compared to U.S. investments.

Changes to U.S. Trade Policy

• Trump’s previous term focused heavily on protectionist trade policies, applying new tariffs on goods from major trading partners including China and the European Union.

• If Trump escalates trade wars again, global trade volumes could drop, impacting Australia’s export-driven economy, particularly in commodities.

• Australia’s commercial property sectors connected to export industries — such as industrial, warehousing, and port logistics — could feel knock-on effects.

• Fossil fuels are a major Australian export. Australia supplies large quantities of coal and LNG (liquefied natural gas) to Asian markets such as Japan, China, and South Korea. If U.S. energy exports rise under Trump, Australia could face stiffer competition in these regions, slightly dampening demand for new infrastructure linked to mining and energy logistics.

• Tariff battles could also influence steel, aluminium, and manufactured goods markets, affecting industrial development projects and construction materials pricing across Australia.

Flight to Safe Assets

• Political uncertainty often pushes global investors toward ‘safe’ markets like Australia.

• Prime Australian office, retail, and industrial assets could see increased demand from international buyers seeking stability.

• Commercial real estate in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane may particularly benefit from safe-haven investment trends.

Shifting Investment Strategies

• A Trump presidency could alter institutional investment strategies, affecting capital flow into property funds and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts).

• Australian REITs may become more attractive if U.S. markets experience heightened volatility or new regulatory hurdles.

• Direct investment into tangible assets like commercial property could increase as investors seek to hedge against uncertainty.

Key Sectors That Could Benefit

Certain commercial property sectors are better positioned to capitalise on the potential changes ahead.

Industrial and Logistics

• With global supply chains facing uncertainty, demand for warehouse, cold storage, and logistics hubs could continue rising.

• Locations near ports, airports, and major highways in Australia are likely to see stronger demand from businesses adjusting operations.

Office Markets

• The ‘flight to quality’ trend could intensify if investors seek stable, premium office assets outside volatile markets.

• Australia’s key CBDs — particularly Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth — could benefit from global capital reallocation.

Retail and Hospitality

• Dependent on currency fluctuations, Australia’s tourism and retail sectors may benefit if the AUD remains comparatively low.

• Retail spaces, particularly those aligned with strong tourist flows or resilient suburban centres, could see increased investor interest.

Will a Trump Presidency Cause a Boom or a Slowdown?

Predicting direct cause-and-effect relationships in commercial property is difficult — but history shows that uncertainty often creates opportunities for well-positioned investors. If Trump’s policies cause economic volatility, Australia could emerge as a beneficiary through increased capital inflows, greater demand for quality assets, and a renewed focus on industrial resilience. However, sectors exposed to global trade slowdowns, mining export competition, or material price fluctuations may need to tread carefully.
Investors and property owners should watch for:

• Global investment sentiment shifts

• AUD currency movements

• Changes to U.S. and Asia-Pacific trade dynamics

• Demand for industrial, office, and retail asset classes

• Shifting resource sector dynamics, particularly in fossil fuels
  Being prepared to move when opportunities arise will be critical in navigating the market changes ahead.

How Commercial Property Marketing Can Help

At Commercial Property Marketing, we stay ahead of global trends to help you position your property for success. Whether you’re looking to attract investors, lease assets faster, or future-proof your development, our 3D visualisations, IMs, websites, and full-stack marketing services are designed to help you capitalise on the market — no matter what the global landscape looks like.