Australia’s commercial property market enters 2026 with momentum rebuilding across multiple sectors, but with far more selectivity in where capital and tenants commit. The early-year pattern is consistent across the country: industrial and logistics remain the demand engine, construction and servicing constraints are still shaping feasibility, and “time-to-decision” is increasingly determined by how clearly a project explains its outcome. Across states, the strongest performers are not always the biggest or newest assets — they are the ones with the cleanest access story, the clearest staging logic, and the least ambiguity around delivery. This national update pulls together the key market forces, the major deal signals, and the types of upcoming development activity that are shaping commercial property strategy in 2026.

The national forces shaping commercial property in early 2026

The start of 2026 is being defined by structural drivers rather than short-term sentiment, and those drivers are cutting across every capital city and growth corridor. Industrial supply remains constrained in many metro markets, infrastructure is re-directing demand into new precincts, and occupiers are actively hunting operational efficiency rather than just square metres. At the same time, the deal market is showing that capital is still active — it is simply underwriting harder and favouring assets with obvious leasing strength, future optionality, and credible exit logic. The national forces that matter most right now include:

• Industrial land scarcity staying tight in the corridors that actually matter, pushing developers toward staged estates and forcing occupiers to plan earlier than they want to

• Leasing velocity overtaking headline rent as the real performance metric, with clarity and confidence driving faster commitments and fewer “let’s revisit” delays

• Capital staying selective rather than conservative, with investors favouring modern logistics, well-positioned infill industrial, and assets with lease structure that supports growth

• Development pipelines becoming more “approval and servicing led”, where access, infrastructure and planning certainty decide whether a project can move in 2026

Industrial and logistics – still the national centre of gravity

Industrial continues to dominate enquiry across Australia at the start of 2026 because it sits at the intersection of freight, population growth, decentralised employment, and supply chain resilience. Demand has normalised from peak frenzy, but the deeper driver — constrained supply in the right locations — has not gone away. This is why high-grade logistics estates and rare industrial land parcels are still producing major transactions and strong leasing outcomes. The national industrial themes that will keep compounding through 2026 include:

• Flight to functional assets with clear access, hardstand capability, and layouts that suit modern operators without heavy retrofit cost

• Tenant preference for estates that provide choice, such as multiple unit sizes, staged delivery, and future expansion pathways

• Increased competition between logistics, manufacturing, and emerging industrial users for the same serviced land catchments

• Higher value being placed on “certainty packages”, where planning position and delivery story are clearly demonstrated up front

New South Wales – 2026 starts with Western Sydney logistics and DA momentum

New South Wales begins 2026 with industrial demand still anchored to Western Sydney and key freight-connected precincts, with projects increasingly relying on planning certainty and staging clarity to unlock speed. The signal is that NSW remains highly active, but occupiers and investors are less tolerant of ambiguity — if access, servicing, or project form isn’t clearly demonstrated, timelines stretch and decision-makers defer. On the pipeline side, major warehouse and industrial proposals continue to show up in the NSW Planning Portal, reinforcing that the state’s logistics growth is still being built out through formalised approvals and major-project pathways. The NSW signals worth tracking at the start of 2026 include:

• Ongoing major logistics pipeline activity in precincts like Kemps Creek, reflecting continued freight-led development focus

• Warehouse and business-park style proposals continuing to land in growth areas like Rouse Hill, with public exhibition processes shaping timelines

• Increasing use of digital systems and tools at council level aimed at speeding up DA processes and reducing application friction

• Strong ongoing depth in “sold” industrial turnover across NSW markets, signalling liquidity even when pricing is not always disclosed

New South Wales deals and recently sold – early 2026 indicators

NSW deal flow is best read through a combination of major project movement and the continuous churn of sub-$10m industrial assets that keep owner-occupiers and private investors active. Even when sale prices are undisclosed, the consistent pattern is that functional industrial stock trades quickly when it has clear access, usable warehouse ratios, and clean zoning. Recent sold-market indicators and examples include:

• Western Sydney industrial turnover continuing through late 2025 sales activity, reinforcing ongoing buyer demand in core productivity precincts

• Active “recently sold” industrial stock across NSW markets reflecting depth of private investor and business-owner participation

• Broader NSW sold-market volume remaining substantial, supporting confidence that liquidity is still present for the right industrial product

New South Wales upcoming DAs and what they signal for 2026

The practical read for NSW in 2026 is that approvals and delivery pathways are becoming just as important as location itself. Projects that can demonstrate their operational logic and planning position early reduce friction, convert enquiry faster, and attract higher quality tenant and investor engagement. The most visible early-2026 DA and pipeline signals include:

• Major warehouse proposals and logistics estates continuing through formalised state planning channels, which supports continued supply expansion where infrastructure allows

• Business park proposals integrating warehouse, distribution and mixed commercial uses, reflecting the trend toward multi-use precinct outcomes in growth suburbs

• Ongoing modernisation of DA support systems, suggesting process improvements may gradually reduce timing risk in certain councils

Victoria – 2026 starts with industrial land policy, freight planning, and infill efficiency

Victoria enters 2026 with industrial land policy and freight planning remaining central to the state’s development conversation. The market continues to behave like an efficiency environment: infill and near-metro industrial remains valuable, development feasibility is heavily influenced by servicing and access, and the industrial pipeline increasingly needs a “policy-aligned” story to keep moving. The state government’s land and freight direction reinforces that Victoria is actively planning for industrial and manufacturing capacity — which matters for long-range developer confidence. Victoria’s early-2026 signals include:

• A 10-year direction to unlock significant industrial land supply across the state, aimed at supporting logistics and manufacturing growth

• Freight planning being treated as a core economic lever, reinforcing the importance of corridor selection and access logic in industrial feasibility

• Continued churn of industrial “sold” transactions across Melbourne’s industrial regions, supporting the view that buyer depth remains present

• Ongoing market focus on functional, operationally efficient industrial stock rather than speculative layouts that require heavy adaptation

Victoria deals and recently sold – early 2026 indicators

Victoria’s deal environment remains highly sensitive to location efficiency and lease quality. While many large transactions are institutionally driven, the broader market activity shows consistent turnover of industrial assets, particularly where the asset sits in a well-understood industrial catchment. Recent sold-market indicators and examples include:

• Melbourne Region industrial sales volume remains significant, with consistent transaction turnover supporting market liquidity signals

• Inner-west and established industrial precinct assets continuing to attract interest, reflecting the premium placed on access and tenant suitability

• Ongoing industrial listings and campaign activity in key corridors, reinforcing that owners continue to test demand at pricing levels that assume resilience

Victoria upcoming DAs and pipeline signals for 2026

Victoria’s pipeline story at the start of 2026 is less about one headline DA and more about systemic direction: freight connectivity, land release frameworks, and corridor activation. That shapes which areas attract new warehousing, manufacturing and industrial precinct investment. The pipeline signals that matter include:

• State-backed industrial land release direction that will influence where future precinct-scale projects cluster

• Freight network strategy reinforcing that industrial success will increasingly depend on corridor alignment and access certainty

• Growth-zone project progression supporting long-term confidence in future employment land outcomes, even when delivery is staged

Queensland – 2026 starts with land scarcity, logistics capital, and precinct-scale repositioning

Queensland begins 2026 as one of Australia’s strongest “activity plus growth” markets because population inflows and decentralised employment continue to deepen demand across industrial and mixed-use commercial assets. What stands out early is that Queensland is producing both institutional-grade logistics deals and rare industrial land repositioning plays — the kinds of transactions that reveal where capital expects rental growth and supply scarcity to persist. Queensland’s early-2026 signals include:

• Institutional logistics capital continuing to deploy into Brisbane industrial assets, including a major acquisition in Geebung at $72.5m

• Rare industrial land repositioning plays gaining attention, including Goodman’s $198.4m purchase of the 58ha Gibson Island site and plans to subdivide and sell lots

• Evidence of substantial industrial sales activity in key Brisbane catchments, including reported major Richlands industrial site sale at $33.5m

• Regional and growth-centre DAs continuing to land, reinforcing that demand is expanding beyond the Brisbane inner ring

Queensland deals and recently sold – early 2026 indicators

Queensland’s deal signals at the start of 2026 strongly support the view that industrial scarcity and logistics fundamentals remain investable. The transactions aren’t just “assets changing hands” — they show a belief that modern industrial supply will stay tight and well-located land is becoming harder to replace. Key deal and sold highlights include:

• Gateway Capital’s reported $72.5m acquisition of QIC’s Geebung logistics complex, indicating ongoing appetite for modern, leased logistics estates

• Goodman’s reported $198.4m acquisition of Gibson Island, signalling the value of rare, strategically located industrial land with redevelopment/subdivision potential

• Reported $33.5m Richlands industrial site sale, reinforcing continued depth in large-format industrial land and facility transactions

• Continued turnover of smaller industrial assets across Queensland markets, supporting broad-based participation beyond institutions

Queensland upcoming DAs and what they signal for 2026

Queensland’s pipeline at the start of 2026 is being shaped by precinct-scale commercial growth and “practical logistics” demand — meaning facilities and estates that support servicing, warehousing and distribution rather than speculative formats. Early pipeline indicators include:

• Warehouse development proposals in growth regions such as Gympie, reflecting expanding regional demand for logistics and large-format industrial users

• Continued evidence of industrial land scarcity, pushing more attention toward subdivision-ready sites and staged estate rollouts

• Ongoing acquisition of modern logistics estates by capital groups, reinforcing that pre-leasing and tenant mix will remain central to feasibility models

Western Australia – 2026 starts with resilient industrial fundamentals and steady sold turnover

Western Australia enters 2026 with industrial fundamentals continuing to hold, supported by trade, logistics and resource-linked demand. The WA market often cycles differently to the east coast, but early-2026 indicators show consistent turnover across metro industrial assets, including smaller unit-based stock that suits owner-occupiers and private investors. This is the kind of activity that keeps the market “real” rather than purely institutional. WA early-2026 signals include:

• Continued industrial sold-market turnover across WA, indicating ongoing buyer depth in warehouse and industrial stock

• Evidence of specific sales transactions recorded in January 2026 in established industrial suburbs like Osborne Park

• Ongoing sales evidence in southern metro industrial markets, including transactions with disclosed pricing such as a $950,000 sale in Kelmscott in November 2025

• Continued importance of access, lot usability and future flexibility as core decision factors for WA buyers and tenants

Western Australia deals and recently sold – early 2026 indicators

WA’s sold-market indicators suggest consistent participation from private buyers and business operators. Even when large institutional headlines are less frequent, steady turnover in functional industrial assets is a strong foundational signal. Recent sold and deal indicators include:

• 26 Ruse Street, Osborne Park recorded as sold on 13 January 2026, reflecting ongoing transaction flow in established industrial precincts

• Southern metro industrial sales evidence including a $950,000 sale in Kelmscott recorded in November 2025, reinforcing liquidity in smaller industrial assets

• Broader WA sold-market volume indicating consistent turnover across warehouse and industrial stock classes

Western Australia upcoming DAs and pipeline signals for 2026

WA pipeline visibility often appears more fragmented than NSW, but the early-year takeaway remains consistent: precinct-aligned industrial supply and corridor logic will keep driving outcomes. Pipeline signals to track include:

• Continued unit-estate activity and staged industrial formats that allow mixed buyer and tenant entry points

• Increasing reliance on staging narratives to support pre-commitment and feasibility confidence

• Ongoing demand for industrial land in accessible corridors as serviced supply remains finite in the most practical locations

South Australia – 2026 starts with process modernisation and visible DA transparency

South Australia’s early-2026 commercial property story is more about enabling frameworks than constant headline deals. What matters here is that planning transparency and assessment improvements support the conditions for smoother delivery, and that councils and precincts continue to publish accessible DA registers. For developers and investors, these systems reduce friction and improve early intelligence around competing supply and precinct evolution. SA early-2026 signals include:

• Planning system assessment improvements being formalised, supporting a direction of process modernisation

• Public-facing lodged DA register tools being available in key council areas like the City of Adelaide, improving visibility of near-term application activity

• Employment zone planning and growth corridor frameworks continuing to shape where industrial expansion can occur

• A market environment where clarity of outcome and planning position materially improves confidence for pre-leasing and sales engagement

South Australia deals and recently sold – early 2026 indicators

South Australia’s “deal read” often sits in the consistency of demand and the shape of pipeline rather than constant mega-sales headlines. The actionable approach for 2026 is to watch DA registers and precinct frameworks closely, because these often reveal where supply is forming before it becomes widely marketed. Practical indicators include:

• Use of lodged DA registers to track emerging supply and commercial intensification in core council areas

• Growth area and employment zone planning activity that indicates where industrial and commercial land activation will cluster

• Planning process improvement direction that may reduce approval uncertainty over time

South Australia upcoming DAs and pipeline signals for 2026

The most useful South Australia pipeline intelligence for early 2026 is found through published council registers and precinct growth planning pages. These allow market participants to identify where commercial and industrial proposals are being lodged, and which precincts may see staging, subdivision and employment land outcomes. Key pipeline signals include:

• City-level DA dashboard visibility for lodged applications within recent months, supporting early competitive intelligence and market monitoring

• Employment zone and growth area frameworks indicating where future industrial staging and subdivision may emerge

• Ongoing planning assessment upgrades that support smoother delivery pathways for compliant applications

Tasmania – 2026 starts with publicly advertised applications and industrial-use visibility

Tasmania’s commercial property environment is smaller in volume but often very clear in how applications are advertised and tracked at the council level. For 2026, the key advantage is that you can often see upcoming activity earlier through publicly listed DA pages, which helps investors, operators and developers monitor supply formation and precinct shifts. Tasmania early-2026 signals include:

• Public council DA listings that show currently advertised applications, including industrial-related proposals and infrastructure items

• Ongoing planning and scheme processes shaping how industrial and commercial uses are treated within zones

• Continued visibility around industrial-related permit processes in certain council areas, improving early intelligence for market participants

• A market where clarity and community consultation processes can materially influence timing and delivery outcomes

Tasmania deals and recently sold – early 2026 indicators

Tasmania’s transaction flow is often less headline-driven, so the practical “market read” at the start of 2026 is to follow advertised applications and scheme amendments as early indicators of where commercial activity is forming. Useful indicators include:

• Council advertised application pages that show real-time pipeline activity and proposal types

• Ongoing planning scheme amendment processes affecting permissible uses in industrial zones, which can influence future investment logic

• Planning guidance frameworks that reinforce the importance of zone controls and application quality on delivery timeframes

Tasmania upcoming DAs and pipeline signals for 2026

Tasmania is a strong example of why DA visibility matters for market strategy. When advertised applications are easy to locate, it becomes simpler to track what’s coming, where competition may increase, and which precincts are shifting. Early-2026 pipeline signals include:

• George Town council advertised development applications showing industrial and infrastructure proposals with clear exhibition windows

• Scheme amendment activity influencing how industrial land can evolve into broader commercial use classes in certain areas

• Clear public planning pathways reinforcing that documentation quality and alignment with scheme controls directly affect outcomes

ACT and Northern Territory – national context and how to read smaller markets in 2026

The ACT and Northern Territory typically operate with smaller transaction volumes, but they still matter nationally because they influence government-linked demand, defence-related logistics, and specific precinct-driven commercial development. In 2026, the best way to read these markets is through planning registers, government procurement-linked activity, and the movement of key occupier groups rather than relying on headline deal flow. The most practical indicators to track include:

• Public DA register activity and precinct planning documents to identify upcoming supply and commercial intensification

• Tenant-led movements, particularly government and large service operators, that can re-shape leasing demand quickly

• Infrastructure and servicing announcements that directly affect feasibility and development sequencing

• Evidence of industrial or logistics proposals that signal supply response to operational demand rather than speculative market timing

What this means for developers, agents and owners in 2026

The national market story at the start of 2026 is not “demand is gone” or “demand is unlimited” — it is that decision-makers have become sharper, and projects must do more to earn commitment. The winning advantage is increasingly explanation: how quickly a buyer, tenant, fund manager or stakeholder can understand the outcome and believe the delivery story. In practical terms, that means 2026 rewards developments that reduce hesitation and convert enquiry into commitment faster. The strongest strategic takeaways for 2026 include:

• Projects that demonstrate staging, access and operational logic early will win on leasing and sales velocity even in competitive corridors

• Developments that rely on interpretation will experience slower decision cycles, higher negotiation friction and more time-on-market risk

• DA-stage clarity is becoming commercially valuable, because it allows pre-leasing, early investor engagement and better funding conversations

• Industrial and logistics will remain the national demand engine, but the projects that win will be the ones that are easiest to understand instantly